chase losses formula

[knot]

hello. anyone know of a excel formula that will automatically chase your losses?

[WhyLose]

Betting Assistant to Chase Assistant.

[GeorgeUK]

Chasing losses is a dangerous strategy.

The risk can vary depending on how your initial stake and wagers are made up.

eg. are you taking into account the "value of a bet"
The difference in the odds of previous bets to chace with shorter odds that may have a better chance of recouping?
Are you using a set stake or % of bank
How long will you chase losses before letting them go?

You may want to check out the reverse Labouchere - but again it will need adjusting for the length of potential losing streaks etc.
Even odds can often lose 7 times in a row. with increased selections and lower odds, chasing losses can be very costly.

You could check out some of the betting forums, such as punterslounge, but they would need to know strike rate, yield, number of bets, events etc before giving any opinions. Just make sure you don't use a martingale system.

Probably best to ask about money management and staking rather than chasing losses.
You'll probably get a lot more ideas and less hassle.
As long as you have a system that can make a profit longterm with even stakes, a stking plan should be able to capitalise on that. You'll probably hear a fair bit about the Kelly Criterion and other fancy stuff. Make sure you paper trial anything first.

If you are chasing losses though, i'd try something like (Basic stake + (25% of last bet * probability of win))
Note - this means it will be a maximum of Basic + 25% as max probability is 100%.

All depends on what your success rate and odds you take are though.

[knot]

hi george i will be laying to a fixed liability of 10. a max of four losses will be chased.

[WhyLose]

A dreadful day. I'd of been better off backing them. But I have an explanation - not an excuse. My daughter's over ATM. I've never before had four consecutive losers when laying.

[GeorgeUK]

WhyLose - ouch
I bet around 17:30 you were wanting a stiff drink.

I never chase losses - my picks anren't good enough and i've investigated how expensive it can be.
I play poker sometimes too so that helps with the mentality. It's not about how much you win but how often you lose.

knot - never really looked closely at reverse Labouchere, but you may find something to use from it.
It's usually used for roulette, but i thought you may use it if you had a high strike rate.

Write out a sequence of numbers: 1,2,3,4,5
Take the outside numbers and add them. We add 1 + 5 and get 6. We bet 6 units.
If you win, add 6 to the series: 1,2,3,4,5,6
The series continues as long as we are winning - and the bets get larger.
(Next bet 1 + 6 = 7)

If you lose, we cross off the first and last numbers (last bet), and add the next inside numbers, which are 2 +5. So we bet 7 units.
If you keep losing, you will keep crossing out numbers until the series is finished.
I thought you could have a basic stake and this £15 recovery bank - when the recovery bank got back up to the amount lost, revert back to only fixed stake.

Again - it all depends on what your strike rate and yield are. The example above uses even odds as an example. Betting £6 may not give £6 profit.

Make sure you test all staking and recovery plans on paper first.
This system may cost you in the longrun so please be careful. I thought it worth mentioning, but please check other sources and ideas.