Australian Horses - withdrawals affecting odds

[StuT]

Hi all,
After analysing Horse Races in Austrlia from last night I noticed that a couple of races threw up spurious odds at BSP.

In one race the horse was trading at about 1.58 and had a projected SP of 1.60, at the off the BSP was 29. Why would this be?

A similar thing happenened on another race.

This completely throws the overround/underround to about 75% at BSP.

I did notice that both the races had a scratch entry.

Could this be casusing it, if so how can I spot this in Excel and skip to the next race.

[Captain Sensible]

As a backer you should be over the moon getting a 75% book.

Sometimes the BSP will throw up odd results depending on how liquid the market is compared to the amounts bet into the BSP pool. No real way of predicting which way it'll go because market on close bets don't show up in the BSP pools until the off. That's why you have the option of setting the minimum odds you'll accept if you bet direct into the BSP pool.

Everything's a compromise when botting markets and using the BSP to be assured of a match, eventually it all evens out ,some you benefit from better odds and some you don't.

Late non runners can always mess up a book because Betfair cancel some bets off the exchange and it takes a while for the market to reform properly, non runners are shown in cell G3. Plus if they're late removing non runners then plenty of people will send false bets into the market to take advantage of any reduction factors that's one of the reasonsplenty of botters will try and place bets into the market as close to the off as possible when it's at it's most liquid and usually non runners removed.

[StuT]

I'm a layer so 75% isn't good

Thanks for the cell G3 info CS, I will use that in my checking.

I just couldn't understand why the odds went from 1.59 to 29.0, mind you it was a low key AUS Harness Race though....

[Captain Sensible]

Worth monitoring the total matched (cell B3?) and amounts availlable in poor races and adjusting your stakes accordingly especially if placing large BSP bets into poor markets

[bolpx001]

Captain Sensible, you made an interesting comment and one I agree with, 'adjusting your stakes accordingly especially if placing large BSP bets into poor markets' but my question is how big a stake can the BSP market absorb without affecting the returned odds too much? - best regards paul

[Captain Sensible]

No real way of knowing since most BSP liquidity these days comes from the Keep bets i.e. Limit on Close ones that go into the BSP pot if they're not matched in the normal market. But basically the rule of thumb is if the market doesn't attract much liquidity it won't attract much BSP action either as few people continue to throw away their money.

The BSP uses normal unmatched exchange bets in the reconciliation so the best thing to do is assume the BSP pot is evenly matched and if there's enough liquidity in stake columns C,E & G and the odds are good enough then it's safe to back and the sae with laying large stakes just make sure there's enough liquidity in I, K & M at odds you're happy with.

[StuT]

Good question bolpx001, I was wondering that was well, thanks for the info CS. like you say on poor liquidity markets there is more chance of an unexpected BSP being returned.

I've just took a years subscriptions out on the product so I'll be a round for a year at least
I've got that many small strategy ideas in my mind, combine that with my love of excel I think my wife will become a Gruss widow

[bolpx001]

Hi StuT, You should introduce her to the joys of spreadsheets best regards Paul

[bolpx001]

Thanks for that Captain Sensible best regards Paul