I'm 'coming' out.....

[wizardofmann]

.....of the cupboard.

At the risk of getting slain, I've decided to see if anyone out there does what I do: i.e. lay's horses in-play, without backing at higher odds.

I first heard about arbitrage trading back in September 2012 and decided to check it out. It all seemed too good to be true and for me it was, because at my age, the grey cells don't work like they used to.

On this exact day last year, I started trading using the Betfair exchange site, using the minimum stake. I was drained sitting in front of the Betfair in-play page for up to seven hours at times, my mouse clicking away at the refresh button! I lost a shed-load! By mid February I decided to lick my wounds and retreated into my cave to do further research. Being a person who is one of the worlds worst losers, I was determined to find a method that matched my lack of brain cells. After another three months of using the Betfair website just paper trading, with the odd bet thrown in to keep my account active, I went live in May of last year.

I call my system 'laying horses,' (Sounds a bit perverse I know) By September of last year I started to make small gains, but with many self-inflicted set-backs along the way. Those set-backs were the common things us 'gamblers' do that make us curse i.e. chasing losses, lack of discipline, greed, lack of concentration, complacency etc etc, all fairly common ailments of a rookie gambler me thinks and the more experienced among us even.

My fortunes changed when I heard about Betting Assistant, because lets face it, the Betfair betting systems stinks, especially in-play. The last three months my losses have diminished to a very respectable level with a slow but steady growth in winnings which has added handsomely to my state pension. I thank the heavens for Gruss software.

I would be most interested in your comments.

Nick

[milfor]

Laying horses without backing sounds risky. Do you decide which horse to
lay by race pictures, by statistics or by market behaviour?

[gaza]

Is 3 months long enough to assess these things, particulary when talking about supplementing your pension? Maybe 3 years would be a better guide.

[wizardofmann]

Hi milfor

Yes, laying only is risky and of course I get caught out nearly every day (Oh alright, every day!) by what I call 'jumpers.' (When the odds jump within a second or so against me and sometimes even just before the race page shows suspend) For many other awkward situations that arise, I have strategy's in place to reduce an immanent loss, which at times are definitely risky but in the majority, dig me out of a hole.

In May last year (my first month) I lost £210.55 and the next month £126.01. Since then I have made a slow but steady progress and have realised a modest gain every month. I am gaining in confidence but making sure I do not become over complacent.

I have tried every-which-way I could think of laying runners but for me it comes down to simply studying the odds movements/pattern's, which of course vary from race to race. I found watching a race and even worse listening to the commentary, too much of a distraction. Rule of thumb for me is to keep it as simple as possible.

I used to study form, statistics, market behaviour and everything else one could possibly think of but ended up scratching my head every time a long-shot nag won a race at some ridiculous odds!

I 'came out,' in case there is/are anyone else out there playing the same game as me. I am learning something new every day and will continue to do so, win or lose or should that read lose or win? It would be no skin off my nose if I could help or exchange notes with anyone else going down the same long and winding road.

[wizardofmann]

Hi gaza

Fair comment but to expand a bit, those three months and all the previous months before that, were totally committed to the job at hand. I live and breath my hobby for far too many hours than I dare to admit to. I forgot to mention before that I also lay runners seven days a week and only miss races that I consider too risky (When the odds are jumping around like pin-pong balls in a nuclear charged atmosphere)

[Fixador]

Wizzardofmann ...

I believe I reckonize undercurrents in your posts - and as a guy who has committed 12 years to this lark, and o so many times upto 15 hours a day - on my 'hobby' - and also as an older geezer now - I have a suggestion:-

Take a months holiday - a week, a fortnight - is not enough

Just remember - their'be racing in the spring as well !

Pressing the brain cells for too long, too hard - produces only dull answers,

ditto re making the dent in the wall plaster a little wider, a little deeper with your forehead

[wizardofmann]

I thank you for your words of wisdom fixador and you are all so right. There are times, as has been proved today (Disco Dave 16.00 at Wolverhampton!) when it's time to shut up shop for the day. Never mind, tomorrow's another day

P.S. I am at present on my annual three months winter break in Cyprus

[austingrd]

Indeed. Just don't focus your loss at a single day. It's just a single day any way.

[wizardofmann]

Indeed indeed austingrd

Yesterday was not a good day

Lingfield 12.45 8f Hcap. Skidby Mill. It was steady at around 15/1 at the half-way stage and from there on started to drift. I laid it approx 15 seconds before the finish @ 19/1

From there on it was a case of playing catch-up I was only twelve quid down when the 15.10 at Wolverhampton reared it's ugly head Volcanic Dust had not won a race for 29 months (Sandown 4th August 2011) I watched it steadily drift and laid it no more than 10 seconds before the finish @18/1

My first red showing of 2014. Never mind, today is another day and I'm still Love it Perhaps one day when I retire to stud I will write a book on my ups and downs

[MiniBlueDragon]

I guess if you've calculated your theoretical longest losing run and your bet liability is always low enough that you could withstand 3 or 4 long losing runs in a row there's not a problem but for me it takes balls of steel to lay an outsider as despite the odds they still come in (if you were a trainer you'd want the highest odds humanly possible on your horse to make as much money as possible when you back it).

For me the key in laying horses is to make sure your liability is never such that your bank gets heavily damaged when your bet goes against you.

Have you thought about ways to identify favourites or short-priced horses to lay instead of 16/1 shots?

[wizardofmann]

Hi MinBlueDragon

Believe it or not, I do not have losing runs as such. In the last seven days I laid 175 (which is very low due to cancelled racing) runners, losing just 16 (2.29 per day) with a liability of £23.59 per loss.

I adjust my maximum liability in preferences after each loss, as a percentage of my bank.

I purely work on in-running odds movement and look for a steady rise or fall using the odds movement of the three lowest odds. I stay away from races with 'prancing odds' and just move onto the next race.

I used to study form etc. etc. early on in my quest for losers but soon gave that up as a total waste of time. I do have a quick look down the list before a race to identify certain riders whole tend to 'steal' races and keep a wary eye on them during the race but that is all.

I have no interest in identifying favourites or short-priced horses and I vary rarely lay horses as high as 16/1. If I see a first, second or third favourites odds moving in the right direction, I jump on it as soon as I believe it is going to lose: thereby keeping my liabilities as low as possible.

I hope that is a help to you and if you need more detailed information please send me a PM. What I do is very risky indeed and in my early days I got my fingers burnt left right and center. I do not make a fortune but that has never been my intention. I am happy to just make enough to subsidise my pitiful pension.

[MiniBlueDragon]

I guess the thing is if you don't know how bad things can get (by calculating what type of losing run you're likely to encounter at some point) it seems that all is well and you won't encounter any bank-decimating problems.

Calculating your theoretical Longest Losing Run is quite simple though so it may be worth having a look at just so that you're prepared for whenever it happens. May not be today, tomorrow or at all during the time you're running your system but statistically it will happen at some point.

Longest Losing Run calculation in Excel:

=LN(NumberOfBets)/(-LN(1-ActualStrikeRate))

e.g for 1234 bets with an average strike rate of 27.08% it would be:

=LN(1234)/(-LN(1-0.2708))

That gives a potential Longest Losing run for that system of 22.54

If you were merrily betting away with 5% of your bank as a stake when that type of losing run is encountered you're basically shafted.

On top of that there are losing runs which are shorter than the "max" estimate but which string together with only a single win or two in between the runs and that can hammer the bank too.

For me I tend to triple my system's theoretical LLR just to be extra cautious and then divide my bank into that figure for the maximum stake I'm willing to use for safety (in the above example I'd use a maximum of 1.48% of my bank with that length of LLR)

Of course at the end of the day people do as they wish and perhaps I'm being over-cautious for my own betting. lol

[johnenla]

For me I tend to triple my system's theoretical LLR just to be extra cautious and then divide my bank into that figure for the maximum stake I'm willing to use for safety (in the above example I'd use a maximum of 1.48% of my bank with that length of LLR) .





_______
Fut Coins

[doris_day]

For those of you who like to keep a strict check on these things and even improve on your algos take a look at hrsc.co.uk
I have no affilliation with them but found them last year and they've transformed my record keeping and one algorithm in particular.